Spatial Model Approach for Deforestation: Case Study in Java Island, Indonesia

Java is very densely populated since it is inhabited by more than 60% of the total population of Indonesia. Based on data from the Ministry of Forestry, forest loss between 2000-2005 in Java was about 800,000 hectares. Regardless of the debate on whether the different methodologies of forest inventory applied in 2005 have resulted in an underestimation of the figure of forest loss or not, the decrease of forest cover in Java is obvious and needs immediate response. Spatial modeling of the deforestation will assist the policy makers in understanding this process and in taking it into consideration, when decisions are made on the issue. Moreover, the results can be used as data input to solve environmental problems resulting from deforestation. The authors of this chapter modeled the deforestation in Java by using logistic regression. Percentage of deforested area was considered as the response variable, whilst biophysical and socioeconomic factors, that explain the current spatial pattern in deforestation, were assigned as explanatory variables. Furthermore, the authors predicted the future deforestation process, and then, for the case of Java, it was validated with the actual deforestation derived from MODIS satellite imageries from 2000 to 2008. Results of the study showed that the impacts of population density, road density, and slope are significant. Population density and road density have negative impacts on deforestation, while slope has positive impact. Deforestation on Java Island tends to occur in remote areas with limited access, low density population and relatively steep slopes. Implication of the model is that the government should pay more attention to remote rural areas and develop good access to accelerate and create alternative non agricultural jobs in order to reduce pressure on the forest.